Warning: This review contains spoilers for episode seven of Survivor: Caramoan. If you haven’t seen the episode yet, you can check it out at CBS.com
This week’s episode of Survivor: Caramoan was officially titled ‘Tubby Lunchbox,’ but here at The Lindus List, I like to rename episodes based on the strategic themes presented by the players. As such, I am calling episode seven of Survivor: Caramoan “The Curious Case of Specialist Sheppard.”
We’re in an odd place in the game right now; after the Brandon and Shamar show of the first five episodes, the tribal swap brought hope that shifting allegiances might breath new life into the games of a few of the underdogs. This hope has been short-lived. Sure, we’re starting to see a few more confessionals from some of the more under-edited characters, but for the most part, the game is still being overshadowed by the antics of Phillip Sheppard.
So, let’s talk Phillip for a bit; does he have a chance to actually win this game? After all, he has been the most prominent player to make it this far, and we are seeing more of the reasoning behind his tactical decisions than any other player. He could win it all, right? No, that’s a silly question, and shame on you for asking! Phillip doesn’t stand a chance in this game. From a strategic standpoint, the other Favorites are using him precisely the way they need to; as a shield, deflecting attention away from themselves as they push themselves further and further. In trying to reinvent himself as the new Boston Rob, Phillip has only cemented his role as the goat of the season. Normally this would be enough to get dragged to the end in a second or third place finish, but this time around, Phillip has pissed off allies in the process of assuming the leadership role. Corinne and Andrea both have reasons to dethrone the head of the Corporation once the merge comes.
Still, Phillip is a slippery character. In aligning with Dawn and Cochran, Phillip has positioned himself in a place where he may not make it deep, but he has a great chance of making it further in the game than Corinne, who is on the outs with most of the Favorites.
With the merge coming next episode, we’re in a place where we can start deciphering the edit to start making winner predictions. Mind you, this early in the game, it is quite easy to make an incorrect call, especially with the amount of static that has been interfering with the edits this year. Phillip is the last of the camera hogs left, and as we’ve already mentioned, a win is impossible for him. Ignoring him, who have the editors shown us as viable winner candidates?
Let’s start by looking at the edits of the new Gota tribe versus the new Bikal tribe. On the new Gota tribe, we really haven’t seen much. Sure, Eddie, Brenda, and Erik have all recovered from underdog positions and are currently sitting pretty within their alliances, but we’re not really seeing enough of them to be able to appreciate their tactical games. They might just be riding coattails, they may be making expert maneuvers, or maybe somewhere in between. Who knows? They aren’t receiving screen time, so we’re left scratching our heads regarding their chances. This eliminates them as winner candidates.
Likewise, Reynold’s edit has been problematic since the beginning of the game. As the leader of the minority alliance on the underdog tribe of Fans, Reynold would surely have received a more heroic edit if he was the sole Survivor. We’ve seen his challenge prowess, we’ve seen him find idols, we’ve even seen him remain loyal to his friends, but we also saw him cast in the antagonist role against Shamar, who by all rights is one of the more polarizing characters of the season. Reynold may go deep, and he may even earn himself another chance to play as a returning player on a future season, but I am eliminating him from my winner pool.
Andrea has been depicted as a chaotic and unpredictable element since the beginning of the season; from her aggressive targeting of Francesca, to her part in escalating Brandon during his meltdown, to her distrust of Corinne, Andrea has been all over the map. A winner’s edit will likely be more refined than this; it doesn’t have to be perfect, but we need to know that their strategy is moving them forward. Andrea is being removed from my list of winner candidates as well.
Sherri is the only fan who has a chance of winning the game based on her edit, but I am not willing to put money on her. She had a fantastic edit during the early episodes, showing tactical prowess as Shamar’s caretaker and leader of the misfit alliance of Fans. Since Shamar’s departure, however, the bulk of her airtime has been cast in a negative light. She was seen as a naysayer during the eviction of Laura, a player who was shown to be a detriment to her tribe, and since the swap, Sherri’s only focus has been as an antagonist to Reynold. I’m not eliminating her, but I’m not placing high stock in her chances.
Malcolm is the only of the new Gota tribe members who really stands a fighting chance; throughout the game, we’ve been shown Malcolm’s take on the things happening around him, always through the lens of his sense of humor and enjoyment of the game of Survivor. Without having to reveal his hidden immunity idol, Malcolm has Andrea, Brenda, Erik, Eddie, and Reynold all looking to him as a trusted ally, and Malcolm has just as many people who have put their faith in him on the new Bikal tribe. Can Malcolm win this game? The edit says yes, but my gut says no. Malcolm may have spread himself too thin, making alliances with everyone in the game. This bodes well for him now, but when he has to start turning on people, Malcolm will likely become the focus of a lot of negative attention.
The new Bikal tribe has seen the bulk of attention by the editing team over the course of the past two episodes, and I don’t think the fact that Phillip is on the tribe or that new Bikal has gone to the last two tribal councils are the only reasons why. I’ve already eliminated Phillip as a winner, so who is left?
Corinne certainly doesn’t stand a chance, as much as I love her confessionals. She’s been shown to be the target of Phillip, Andrea, and Dawn, and she has been unable to sway her alliance into voting the way that she wants. Likewise, Michael is probably going to endure the rest of the season as Corinne’s sidekick. I would love to see the two of them make a bold move and steamroll to the finale, but their edit has been too sparse and too unfocused for me to think this has a shot at happening.
Dawn has been hidden through most of the season; following a few strategic scenes featured in the first episode and attention on her breakdown in episode two, she has been mostly invisible. In my cast analysis, I predicted Dawn would be a journey edit character, and I hold to this opinion. Look to Dawn making it to fourth or fifth place, with her boot sequence focusing on how far she has come as a player.
Winner Prediction: At this point in the season, The Lindus List would like to officially predict John Cochran as the winner of Survivor: Caramoan. Let’s examine the evidence, shall we? During nearly every episode of the season, Cochran has had confessionals talking about the events transpiring on his tribe. During the early episodes, these were kept minimal, but still present. Old Bikal didn’t have a lot of need for strategic confessionals, especially with the Brandon/Phillip feud absorbing so much attention. Since the swap, Cochran has been shown as a confessional powerhouse, with plenty of opportunities to share his opinions about his tribemates. He has the strongest edit of the players left on what the editors want us to see as the ‘tribe of interest,’ so Cochran’s chances are looking pretty good to me. From a tactical standpoint, he is on solid ground as well. With the merge coming, we’ll see Favorites targeting Fans, Corinne and Phillip at each others’ throats, Reynold and Sherri trying to eliminate one another, and Andrea trying to usurp Phillip. Only Brenda, Erik, Dawn, and Cochran are in a position to comfortably lay low and ride out the game until the end, but as previously mentioned, neither Brenda, Erik, nor Dawn have winner edits.
Could I be wrong? Of course! There is still plenty of game left to be played, and sometimes a winner will come out of left field. After all, Bob from Gabon, Natalie from Samoa, and Fabio from Nicaragua all shocked me when they won their respective seasons. Still, Cochran is as good a horse to hitch my wagon to as any. Who do you want to see win the game?
